Core K Predictions

DeletedUser

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2. HYBRID 42k - 62 Members
More members, less points then the above, so no the best start. Ranked 12th on points and 16th on ODA. Generic profile and no one from their roster jumps out to me. Their highest ranked player is 1k below Fonk80 but then maybe he's just a point whore?
Probability of taking the K: 3/10, nothing particually bad about them. just nothing particually good either.

3. SCRE4M 42k - 53 Members
Lower member count and currently ranked 11 on points and 9th on ODA. Probably a more serious prospect then HYBRID however from there sadly it's downhill. :( Fist thing on their discription is that their a family tribe. The family has 19 members in the same K so I don't see why they don't join forces. (But then I can't be bothered looking at the map.)
Probability of taking the K: 4/10, probably marginally more likely then HYBRID but as far as I can see the K is Virtus for the taking.
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Too bad thaT SCREAM are onthe run from us! they make good farms
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Well after those in depths analysis (Thank you Sexy Smerf and Gettysberg, I now have a couple of hours free'd up for this weekend) I feel better placed to make some core predictions as a whole.

K44 Can we really look any further then iHate (Currently Bi!) for this K? Recently splits have knocked their average and they have less of a convincing lead in points per player average over competators now. But with 5 of the current top 7 players you suspect it hardly matters. However with 5 times thier member count maybe you have to keep DJLS in mind also. There are lots of accusations of MRNs around (Mass Recruiting Noobs) but then there is a 120 member tribe limit and one large tribe has an advantage of 3 or 4 families and we saw how long MH lasted on w3 so there could be something there especially if well led. Going from Sexy's anylsis it looks like a pretty weak K below Sons, Exiles and T*U*D. These three seem average at best but below that it looks worrying.

K54 Baseing the following on Gettysbergs excellent analysis it does appear there are no stand out contenders here. There are four tribes in the top 20 with over 1k averages and none of them are based here. Although Gack! (currently ranked 58th with 11 members) do fit into that. Despite their size something could happen there in time possibly, especially if they go under the radar of the other tribes for now. (Oppps....). InSane have had a bit of a bad press but I think they deserve a clean slate as they were hampered by previous regimes in other tribes. Also just noticed my old friend Bazza the Brave is in this tribe (Hi Bazza) so they can't be all that bad. R_O_T are also worth mentioning as it seems they're Gettysbergs bet for the K. I'm not so sure....an application form on the profile? Yes they poll new members but I think it seems like an easy tribe to get spies into and they're are probably several there already.

K45 Probably the K with the most competition for top spot with both Virtus and +Pest- looking good, the former currently having pole position. W4CK and SCRE4M also look compitant but at this stage neither look likely to really dominate.

K55 As it's my K I've got to go for 404 havn't I? Have got off to a good start and when G.G do disintigrate (which may happen in a week or maybe happen in two months) it would take an unholy alliance to inpede their further growth. Also worth mentioning MAD and the slightly less convincing RPS~E who I feel will go on to become significant tribes but doubt that either will single handedly dominate the K.

Conclusion
K44 - iHate

K54 - InSane / Gack!

K45 - Virtus / +Pest-

K55 - 404
 

DeletedUser

Guest
bella muerte said:
Well after those in depths analysis (Thank you Sexy Smerf and Gettysberg, I now have a couple of hours free'd up for this weekend) I feel better placed to make some core predictions as a whole.

K44 Can we really look any further then iHate (Currently Bi!) for this K? Recently splits have knocked their average and they have less of a convincing lead in points per player average over competators now. But with 5 of the current top 7 players you suspect it hardly matters. However with 5 times thier member count maybe you have to keep DJLS in mind also. There are lots of accusations of MRNs around (Mass Recruiting Noobs) but then there is a 120 member tribe limit and one large tribe has an advantage of 3 or 4 families and we saw how long MH lasted on w3 so there could be something there especially if well led. Going from Sexy's anylsis it looks like a pretty weak K below Sons, Exiles and T*U*D. These three seem average at best but below that it looks worrying.

K54 Baseing the following on Gettysbergs excellent analysis it does appear there are no stand out contenders here. There are four tribes in the top 20 with over 1k averages and none of them are based here. Although Gack! (currently ranked 58th with 11 members) do fit into that. Despite their size something could happen there in time possibly, especially if they go under the radar of the other tribes for now. (Oppps....). InSane have had a bit of a bad press but I think they deserve a clean slate as they were hampered by previous regimes in other tribes. Also just noticed my old friend Bazza the Brave is in this tribe (Hi Bazza) so they can't be all that bad. R_O_T are also worth mentioning as it seems they're Gettysbergs bet for the K. I'm not so sure....an application form on the profile? Yes they poll new members but I think it seems like an easy tribe to get spies into and they're are probably several there already.

K45 Probably the K with the most competition for top spot with both Virtus and +Pest- looking good, the former currently having pole position. W4CK and SCRE4M also look compitant but at this stage neither look likely to really dominate.

K55 As it's my K I've got to go for 404 havn't I? Have got off to a good start and when G.G do disintigrate (which may happen in a week or maybe happen in two months) it would take an unholy alliance to inpede their further growth. Also worth mentioning MAD and the slightly less convincing RPS~E who I feel will go on to become significant tribes but doubt that either will single handedly dominate the K.

Conclusion
K44 - iHate

K54 - InSane / Gack!

K45 - Virtus / +Pest-

K55 - 404
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Excellent analysis. I can forsee a merger between +PEST+ and Virtus tho. K55 defo 404 and K44 will be a hard fight, DJLS are really much more organized than everyone in bi! expected.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
master warrior said:
if anyone can be bothered can you look at k56 please
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it´s too early (for me certainly, to be bothered) to look at rim K´s. They´re not even filled out yet as far as i´m aware. but if it´s your K and your interested, feel free to post your thoughts on here. (or on the currently non-existant thread entitled "Rim K Predictions")
 

DeletedUser

Guest
ok the i will give this a shot.

1 BDE villages 24

this is the tribe that i am in currenytly and i think we are starting to become established and in the near future we will be seeing a more compact tribe perhaps with more active members. for the future as it stands i think that we can only grow at the momment i don't think anyone in this k is near a noble yet so i think for now we will be trying to grow as one.

2 T.C.D villages 19

currently rank 2 in this k and our allies T.C.D are also in a very good postion and like my tribe i expect them to do well but i do expect them to be more active in k46 than in this k. but who knows.

3 .k. villages 9

a tribe which from what i know has most of its players in k55 but some are starting to appear in this k as well depending on the route that they take they may well stand a good chance of running this k.

4 BOA* villages 6

a tribe which say they stand for killing stiff and self cleansing pretty much, they seem to be spread over several k though so who knows what will happen but, if they focus themselves more in one k then they seem to have the quality players needed to run a k.

5 l-w villages 6

at the time of writting this there is only one point betwee these 2 tribes in my k, although a bigger tribe overall they may have the edge over BOA*. just like .k. however they are a tribe that seem to have originated from k55 so things may become interesting there.

this is my 2 cents for now, but i think this k is too young to make firm judgements just yet and there may well be many twists yet to occur.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
well done for giving it a shot. but yes, if the biggest tribe has 25 members (now 30) it's probably a bit early to make any judgments. Interesting though that your tribe is in 80th one place above Window with 4 members.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
K54 has changed alot in the last weeks time.

As a K with no head and shoulders front runner, a little ripple can make a big wave. Most notable is the disappearance of Theory who merged into InSane.


1 T4H-C 88.244 81 ODA rank 8th Still the largest. Allegedly allied with R_O_T and BL. Both in the top 10 for the K. Some rumors say they are also allied with Fianna. Leader finally figured out a war before nobles is a bad idea. Very strong on the west of the K. They honestly don't impress me much, and they are behind from their little war. Its going to take 'em a while to catch up.
Probability of winning the K 4/10

2 InSane 84.771 61 ODA rank 7th 2 The merger of Theory into Insane has launched these guys into contender status. They are now a threat to take control. Having said that, despite having several good players, they are mostly made up of point whores that won't last long into noble stage. Already has a reputation or not keeping their word, and has several people pissed off.
Highest average PPA of any tribe in the K with more then 13 players. It'll be interesting to see if they can hang together, and work together.
Probability of taking the K 6/10


3 R_O_T 81.139 66 6th in ODA Have been fairly quiet. These guys really don't stand out as anything special, but for the K aren't to bad. They'll be around longer then a few other tribes, may end up controlling the K with a little luck.
Probability of taking the K 5/10


4 BL 49.524 50 ODA rank 19th If they work together with T4H they may have a chance.
Probability of taking the K 2/10

5 KnK 47.818 53 ODA rank 40 Staying quiet. Maybe preoccupied with world one?
Probability of taking the K 3/10


6 Saints 47.502 44 ODA rank 9th Moving up in rank, getting passed in ODA by the larger tribes. Smallest of the tribes mentioned so far, also the third smallest top 20 tribe in the world. Probably the tribe in the K that has shown the best ability to work together as a whole.
Probability of taking the K 5/10


7 KGM 26.434 34 ODA rank 12th Haven't heard much from these guys either, have a decent ODA though, so someone is obviously working.
Probability of taking the K 3/10


8 Fianna 24.884 14 Small tribe, to spread out to do much. They will be valuable to their allies though.

9 Gack! 20.591 11 Same deal as Fianna, small tribe, won't dominate, but will be valuable to allies.

10 T.B. 18.558 34 ODA ranked 60 Another smallish tribe, hasn't shown much.

11 404 18.312 THESE GUYS!?!?!?!?! 8 Have the top 2 players in the K. Time will tell if they can make it as spread out as they are.
 
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DeletedUser

Guest
Don't mean to be picky, well I do actually; but your probability calculator is a little off.
4/10
+6/10
+5/10
+2/10
+3/10
+5/10
+3/10
=28/10
 

DeletedUser

Guest
fillap said:
Don't mean to be picky, well I do actually; but your probability calculator is a little off.
4/10
+6/10
+5/10
+2/10
+3/10
+5/10
+3/10
=28/10
Click to expand...

that was a rating out of ten for the tribe, not the probability of it taking the K
 

DeletedUser

Guest
fillap said:
Don't mean to be picky, well I do actually; but your probability calculator is a little off.
4/10
+6/10
+5/10
+2/10
+3/10
+5/10
+3/10
=28/10
Click to expand...
Don't mean to be picky but...shouldn't it read 28/70?
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Not to burst the bubble here, but 99% of these tribes will not last after nobles. The quiet players and tribes will step into the game, and there will be a lot of merging.
 

DeletedUser857

Guest
sentrii said:
Not to burst the bubble here, but 99% of these tribes will not last after nobles. The quiet players and tribes will step into the game, and there will be a lot of merging.
Click to expand...

Thats a very sweeping, not to mention inaccurate, statement there.
 
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